The Research
The Data at a Glance
A one-page visual summary of Is There a New Religious Revival? — the mobility, demographic, and intellectual shifts behind the question.
RESEARCH BRIEF • FEBRUARY 2026 Is There a New Religious Revival? By Bheki Mahlobo & Joel Kotkin 50%+ of Europeans under 40 claim no religion — secular decline is still real 45% growth in baptisms in France in 2025 — early signs of a turn 4× rise in UK churchgoing among 18–24s: 4%→16% since 2018 600M Pentecostals today, projected to reach 1 billion by 2050 I · THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FAITH Religion has become an engine of mobility — and an elite marker In the US, weekly attendance rises with schooling — the reverse of Europe, where the educated leave faith behind. High school 23% Some college 26% Bachelor's 28% Post-graduate 30% US weekly attendance by education — Coop. Election Study, 2024. THE SOCIAL CAPITAL EFFECT Faith connects the poor to the affluent Harvard's Raj Chetty found cross-class friendship is the single strongest predictor of escaping poverty — and congregations forge it better than schools or workplaces. +20% lifetime earnings lift (Chetty) −33% lower mortality >1×/wk (Harvard) THE CHARITABLE BACKBONE Who carries the safety net Charitable $ 73% Homeless beds 60% Share of US giving and shelter from religious sources. 73% of weekly attendees give to the poor — vs. 41% of non-observants. MOBILITY IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH Nigeria: literacy despite illiterate parents Christian .786 Muslim .466 Traditionalist .229 Intergenerational educational mobility — Brown Univ. / Nature. “For the first time in decades, Christianity has stopped its nosedive in the US.” PEW RESEARCH CENTER · FEB 2025 II · THE DRIVERS Meaning, men & the “God Gap” A crisis of meaning and digital isolation pull the young — especially men — toward tradition. Gen Z men now adopt Christian identity at rates equal to or above women. Demography favors the faithful: those who pray have more children, while the unaffiliated fall below replacement. III · NEW ATHEISM → “NEW THEISM” The epistemic elite changes its mind The combative New Atheism of the 2000s has “largely exhausted itself.” A post-secular turn runs through intellectuals, scientists, even Silicon Valley. Ayaan Hirsi Ali former New Atheist, 2023 Richard Dawkins now “cultural Christian” Russell Brand baptized 2024 Musk · Thiel public embrace of faith “The first gulp of natural science turns you atheist, but at the bottom of the glass God is waiting.” — Heisenberg THE RESURGENCE OF ORTHODOXY Adherents crave a “full-fat” faith As progressive mainline churches shrink, demanding traditions surge. Orthodox parishes saw a 78% jump in converts (2022 vs 2019) — younger, mostly male. <11% US mainline share — down 40% since 2007 70→45% say religion “very important” IV · THE NEW CRUCIBLE: AFRICA Where the religious future is decided Sub-Saharan Africa now Christian 9% → 63% Africa's share of world Christians 24% → 38% Median age of African Christians global 30 vs 20 By 2050, 4 of every 10 Christians will live in sub-Saharan Africa. CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY Center for Demographics and Policy Is There a New Religious Revival? · Mahlobo & Kotkin, 2026© 2026 Center for Demographics & Policy, Chapman University Sources: Pew · Harvard · Chetty Social Capital Atlas · CES · Bible Society FUNDED BY Fieldstead and Company
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